I would say 80%.
I think a win tomorrow against SDSU is enough to do it. Some think they need to win that game and another one in the Mt West tourny to be a lock on selection Sunday.
If they lose tomorrow to SDSU they will have to make a strong run through the tournament to make it ... which isn't that far fetched an scenario and could very well happen.
Lose tomorrow and an early exit from the tournament and the Broncos will get a 1 seed in the NIT.